Stephen F. Austin

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	104.0
Current RPI:	104
Expected SOS:	329
Current SOS:	329
Current Record:	24-6
Expected Record:	24-6
Current Conf Record:	17-4
Expected Conf Record:	17-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	19-3
Current OOC Record:	7-2
Expected OOC Record:	7-2
Expected OOC RPI:	92
Expected OOC SOS:	307

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-6	104.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stephen F. Austin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	A	61-74	W	100%
11-22	Mississippi St. (73.0)	SEC	A	80-75	L	0%
11-26	Florida A&M (332.0)	MEAC	H	79-63	W	100%
11-28	North Dakota St. (210.0)	Sum	H	54-50	W	100%
12-2	Louisiana Monroe (219.0)	SB	H	68-65	W	100%
12-6	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	A	83-85	W	100%
12-9	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	H	81-62	W	100%
12-16	LSU (95.0)	SEC	A	82-83	W	100%
12-19	Missouri (43.0)	SEC	A	82-81	L	0%
12-28	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	A	73-62	L	0%
1-3	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	H	81-64	W	100%
1-6	Northwestern St. (342.0)	Slnd	A	56-64	W	100%
1-10	New Orleans (239.0)	Slnd	H	78-68	W	100%
1-13	Incarnate Word (347.0)	Slnd	H	83-63	W	100%
1-17	Abilene Christian (260.0)	Slnd	A	66-76	W	100%
1-24	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	A	100-92	L	0%
1-27	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	H	82-66	W	100%
1-31	Houston Baptist (345.0)	Slnd	H	102-82	W	100%
2-3	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	A	76-54	L	0%
2-8	McNeese St. (297.0)	Slnd	A	95-99	W	100%
2-10	Northwestern St. (342.0)	Slnd	H	97-50	W	100%
2-14	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)	Slnd	A	68-87	W	100%
2-17	Incarnate Word (347.0)	Slnd	A	70-81	W	100%
2-21	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	H	97-62	W	100%
2-24	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	H	66-71	L	0%
2-28	Abilene Christian (260.0)	Slnd	H	76-56	W	100%
3-3	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	A	53-65	W	100%
3-8	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	N	86-64	W	100%
3-9	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	N	66-78	W	100%
3-10	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	N	55-59	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stephen F. Austin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Stephen F. Austin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Stephen F. Austin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	26.47	26.47	83.82	83.82	17.90	17.90
Central Arkansas	Slnd	5.92	5.92	51.72	51.72	0.20	0.20
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	4.33	4.33	64.29	64.29	1.24	1.24
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	4.28	4.28	55.56	55.56	0.48	0.48
Northwestern St.	Slnd	4.21	4.21	8.70	8.70	-3.48	-3.48
Lamar	Slnd	4.21	4.21	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	4.20	4.20	65.38	65.38	1.29	1.29
Abilene Christian	Slnd	4.20	4.20	48.00	48.00	-0.17	-0.17
Incarnate Word	Slnd	4.11	4.11	13.64	13.64	-2.99	-2.99
New Orleans	Slnd	2.68	2.68	44.44	44.44	-0.30	-0.30
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	2.61	2.61	32.00	32.00	-0.94	-0.94
Houston Baptist	Slnd	2.58	2.58	11.11	11.11	-2.01	-2.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	2.57	2.57	33.33	33.33	-0.86	-0.86
Mississippi St.	SEC	1.83	1.83	64.52	64.52	0.53	0.53
LSU	SEC	1.80	1.80	56.67	56.67	0.24	0.24
Louisiana Monroe	SB	1.79	1.79	48.15	48.15	-0.07	-0.07
Rice	CUSA	1.76	1.76	17.86	17.86	-1.13	-1.13
Missouri	SEC	1.75	1.75	60.00	60.00	0.35	0.35
Florida A&M	MEAC	1.72	1.72	25.00	25.00	-0.86	-0.86
North Dakota St.	Sum	1.72	1.72	42.86	42.86	-0.25	-0.25
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	1.70	1.70	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	1.67	1.67	13.79	13.79	-1.21	-1.21
Little Rock	SB	0.30	0.30	20.00	20.00	-0.18	-0.18
UTEP	CUSA	0.27	0.27	33.33	33.33	-0.09	-0.09
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.26	0.26	80.65	80.65	0.16	0.16
Mississippi	SEC	0.25	0.25	37.50	37.50	-0.06	-0.06
Texas St.	SB	0.21	0.21	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
UTSA	CUSA	0.17	0.17	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.17	0.17	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.17	0.17	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.16	0.16	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.16	0.16	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Houston	Amer	0.16	0.16	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
Morehead St.	OVC	0.16	0.16	22.22	22.22	-0.09	-0.09
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.15	0.15	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Florida	SEC	0.15	0.15	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.15	0.15	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
North Texas	CUSA	0.14	0.14	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	Amer	0.14	0.14	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.13	0.13	67.65	67.65	0.05	0.05
Texas A&M	SEC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
SMU	Amer	0.13	0.13	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.12	0.12	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Texas	B12	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.12	0.12	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.12	0.12	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Presbyterian	BSth	0.12	0.12	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Tulane	Amer	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
South Carolina	SEC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.11	0.11	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Utah	P12	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
South Alabama	SB	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
High Point	BSth	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.08	0.08	76.67	76.67	0.04	0.04
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Notre Dame	ACC	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
UCF	Amer	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
California	P12	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
UMKC	WAC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
USC Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
UMBC	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Denver	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
North Dakota	BSky	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Utah Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.04	-0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	26.92	26.92	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
VMI	SC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	SC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00